El Nino flexes its muscles again, but not that much for WNY

El nino’s current vigorous state is showing up rather clearly in a major pattern shift underway across the country.  While storminess will increase across the west, and typically cool and wet conditions will prevail in the south, the warm up in the eastern Great Lakes and NE will be tempered by a sometimes negative Arctic Oscillation,  and a slightly negative to neutral NAO.  A more zonal flow will dominate the lower 48, but occasional short waves in the northern branch of the jet will allow brief interruptions in the warmup in our vicinity, with shallow intrusions of arctic air.  There…