Parts of this week look to be tough calls. The operational GFS and NAM keeps us mainly dry on Tuesday, but Short Range Ensemble Forecasts (SREF) which include multiple runs of models, each with slightly different initial conditions (because we can never be certain of initial conditions) have been all over the map with a short wave going by tomorrow. All in all, it appears to me that the bulk of moisture with Tuesday’s system will stay south and east of us. Since the ensemble are all over the place, and the operational models are not, I’m going to lean toward the operational models. (I may regret that choice!) Somewhat more unsettled conditions return later Thursday night and continue into the start of the weekend, with some limited convection possible.
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