First Impression: Easier Call/Second Impression: Crapshoot

Parts of this week look to be tough calls.  The operational GFS and NAM keeps us mainly dry on Tuesday, but Short Range Ensemble Forecasts (SREF) which include multiple runs of models, each with slightly different initial conditions (because we can never be certain of initial conditions) have been all over the map with a short wave going by tomorrow.  All in all, it appears to me that the bulk of moisture with Tuesday’s system will stay south and east of us. Since the ensemble are all over the place, and the operational models are not, I’m going to lean toward the operational models. (I may regret that choice!) Somewhat more unsettled conditions return later Thursday night and continue into the start of the weekend, with some limited convection possible. provides commenting to allow for constructive discussion on the stories we cover. In order to comment here, you acknowledge you have read and agreed to our Terms of Service. Commenters who violate these terms, including use of vulgar language or racial slurs, will be banned. Please be respectful of the opinions of others. If you see an inappropriate comment, please flag it for our moderators to review. Note: Comments containing links are not allowed.

  • Devin

    Forgot to mention when the cell hit 72 dbz that a small hook echo looked like it might be forming to the south of the cell.

  • Mary Beth Wrobel

    Severe T-Storm WATCH cancelled for WNY, however Wind ADVISORY remains posted thru 2am with gusts over 50mph possible.

  • Mary Beth Wrobel

    Here are a few storm damage reports with respect to strong wind gusts on this Saturday:
    2:30pm Large tree fell on power lines in Panama, Chautauqua County.
    4:30pm Tree fell on house and two cars in Cherry Creek, Chautauqua County.
    5:25pm Tree fell on trailor in Falconer, Chautauqua County.

    Wind Advisory is now posted until Midnight for all of WNY.

  • Devin Sobieraj

    Just had a 59mph gust at my house. My bedroom window (which faces SW) got blown out.

  • Mary Beth Wrobel

    Frost ADVISORY 2am-8am Sunday for Erie, Niagara, Orleans, Genesee, Chautauqua counties.

    With clearing skies and lighter winds scheduled this evening into the overnight, temperatures will drop rapidly into the low to mid 30s across the entire region. This will allow patchy to scattered frost to develop especially away from the Great Lakes in interior sections. If you have tender plants or vegetation, you’re urged to cover it up or bring it indoors. Stay tuned for the latest tonight on News 4…

  • Mary Beth Wrobel

    Correction: Frost ADVISORY posted for 2am-8am MONDAY, not Sunday.

  • Devin Sobieraj

    Was in Ellicottville around 11 this morning and the car thromometer read 37 degrees and there was light mist/snow falling in the highest hiltops. I also stopped at burger king and looked up at holiday valey and there was still some sizable patches of snow. I have no idea how it survivedd those 80 degree days. We havnt been below freezing in a solid month.

  • sabresfan

    happy mothers day!!!
    I was wondering if there wasn’t a way to get live Doppler radar and current conditions widgets embedded onto the main blog page… I know its available on many sites, but it would be a nice addition here, I think!

  • Mary Beth Wrobel

    Sabresfan: Good idea! We’ll look into that. Thanks.

  • Don Paul


  • coach アウトレット

    you have a great blog here! would you like to make some invite posts on my blog?

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