A Muggy Period, and then Back to Seasonably Cool

As temperatures and dewpoints begin climbing for a few days, we’ll be reminded it’s still summer. However, we’re not going back to the oppressive heat and humidity of mid July…just routine mugginess. Scattered showers & tstorms will become more likely on Wednesday and Wednesday night (and we’ll have to monitor those tstorms for intensity, although the Severe threat appears rather low). After a weak cold front goes by, any showers will be winding down early on Thursday on the Niagara Frontier, but they may linger longer closer to PA. In any case, this weak cold frontal passage will not usher in noticeably drier air. It will remain on the muggy side into Friday evening. A wave of low pressure riding that front will send more showers & tshowers into at least the southern half of our viewing area into Friday evening, with maybe some activity reaching up to the Niagara Frontier…the farther north, the lower the chances of showers. During Saturday, cooler & drier air will return with skies becoming partly to mostly sunny.

Overall, the northern branch of the jetstream will again dip over the Great Lakes, while the warm ridge of high pressure will remain planted over the interior of the western US. This pattern will prevent any return of truly oppressive heat & humidity over the next 16 days or so. At times, temperatures will run below average, and at other times closer to average. But true “heat wave” conditions are out of the picture well into the month.

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66 thoughts on “A Muggy Period, and then Back to Seasonably Cool

  1. A wave is moving up along our stalled front, and will increase coverage for showers & tshowers overnight. As of 11:20, most activity is in nrn Erie & Niag Cos, but more widespread activity will develop S & SE of Buffalo as well into the predawn and morning hours. Some fog, too.

  2. Over 1″ of rain has fallen in north Amherst in about 20-25 minutes. Very heavy rain currently. Would not be surprised if we exceed 2″ from this. Flooding is going to be likely here tonight.

  3. Nice article Don, makes me appreciate all the innovations in forecasting tools that have come about since 1972. Now I know who had a hand in some of that.

  4. After another short wave goes by late Monday into early Tuesday, a reinforcing shot of cool air will dominate Tue-Thursday. The ensemble means continue to show troughiness over the east, with the lowest heights in that Tue-Thur timeframe. However, further out in time, the troughiness flattens, and we return ALMOST –but not quite–to a zonal flow in week 2. Not a fundamental pattern change in the mean, but some moderation can be inferred from this flattening.

  5. You know with the weather we have had over the past few weeks, I would not at all be surprised to see some color popping very soon over the higher elevations. The trees love warm days and cool nights and if that hasn’t been perfect.

  6. Ive driven through the high country of the southern tier the in the last 2 days and I can confirm the leaves are just beginning to turn in the elevations mainly above 1600ft.

  7. I haven’t directly observed what is going on in higher elevations recently, but it’s too early for Fall foliage changes. If trees are changing now, it’s probably from stress or disease. The length of daylight is more of a significant trigger for foliage changes than just temperature alone.

    Dave mentioned “green for yellow”. Yellow foliage can be caused by mineral deficiencies (Chlorosis), fungal diseases, and water stress – either too much or too little water. Always happy to answer any questions on plant biology as I’m a botanist by trade!

    This article explains it fairly well for anyone interested in a little reading.

    http://www.usna.usda.gov/PhotoGallery/FallFoliage/ScienceFallColor.html

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