Almost Chilly Weather Arrives for a Few Days, but a Gradual Change Follows in the Pattern

Following passage of a sharp cold front, temperatures will be running fairly well below average midweek. But by week’s end, readings will be moderating and may actually climb a tad above average this weekend.The exit of showers with that cold front will also usher in a lengthy dry period which should last into early next week.

The Pacific NW trough/western ridge/eastern trough will dominate again most of this week. However, the extended range ensemble means are showing good agreement in establish a nearly zonal flow a few days later. The amplitude of the trough-ridge-trough will flatten out so that the flow will almost be W to E at our latitude–in the mean. There will still be some ups and downs not currently discernible in models during this 16 day time span from short waves. However, while this isn’t a true pattern shift with the rebuilding of a ridge near us, it will bring us generally comfortably Mild rather than oppressively hot & humid conditions. And this evolution will take the autumn tang out of the air by the weekend and beyond.

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99 thoughts on “Almost Chilly Weather Arrives for a Few Days, but a Gradual Change Follows in the Pattern

  1. Dave, I was thinking along the same lines as you. (You put it so well, even though you may not have base for your point.) I’m sure, and hope, Don is right. I would think they would want to put out an accurate forecast regardless of political orientation. I hope they’re wrong. In the meantime, I will be praying for a -NAO, -AO, +PNA,… come December.

  2. I stand by my thoughts on this. I’m not the only one who questions these things, either. Other experts, including one who occasionally visits this blog, have expressed a certain skepticism, as well. Initially baseless or not, questions have to start somewhere. If we shut down dialogue every time “baseless” was thrown around in an argument, much less would be known and accomplished in this world today.

  3. Of course I don’t need to tell you, Dave, that you’re entitled to your opinion. But an opinion not based on evidence (I have some of those) isn’t worth a whole lot. I do not recall that expert casting any aspersions on the work of the CPC, by the way. He has doubts about anthropogenic warming. 2 different issues. The irony of the CPC being called the CPC when, in fact, it doesn’t deal with time scales and many of the processes associated with climate science can’t be ignored. But if you read their technical discussions and statistical methodology, as to how these operational forecasters make those outlooks, you’ll find nothing whatsoever to support your hypothesis. Evidence. Show me the evidence.

  4. It’s one thing to question in order to learn and gain knowledge. It’s another to question in a manner that leads down a specific path, slanting toward an agenda.

    -EDITED FOR CONTENT BY DON PAUL

  5. In todays politically changing world it’s hard to trust. I threw trust out the window years ago when it comes to politics. What I would like to know is does the public have access to this data? I know I couldn’t interpret it, but I’m sure there are many who could. Anything that is publically funded should be questioned, and kept a watchful eye on.

    Don, I do believe that YOU believe that these people are doing their job with due diligence. And they probably are. But I cant proove or dis-proove what they are saying is the truth. I have to trust them. I guess only time will tell.

  6. Trust? You’ll never find absolute truth anywhere, Sled. We do the best we can w/all our limitations.
    Meanwhile, the furnace heat felt good this a.m. Fog has long since been burned off and the day is sunny here at 63degrees.

  7. I think this is one beautiful day!!! Enjoy! Interesting debate going on. I’d just add that skeptics and skepticism is built in to the peer review process. Studies in peer reviewed journals should; IMO, be weighed as science. Opinion articles, generally written by non-scientists or by scientists who don’t want to dirty their “facts” generally do so outside of the peer review process. That’s my .02 cents. 🙂

  8. Aside from our own DP, I enjoy reading Weather Underground with Dr. Jeff Masters. I know I went off the beam a little with “truth” but we all seem to suffer from not revealing total truth and as far as politics, it’s every where.
    Whether we like it or not. And I don’t like it, but who am I to say?
    Yes, it’s been a beautiful day, Pat. If that’s your story, stick with it!!

  9. Looks like it will be difficult for BUF to finish August at or above normal, temperature-wise. In these first 20 days of August, Buffalo averages out at 3 degrees below normal.

  10. The Lake temperature saw a quick return to reality thanks to August. That and some spots near BUF had a lot of rain during the first part of the month. Also caught Bryan’s forecast at 5. The upcoming cold front is only going to shave a few degrees off the high, and get rid of the humidity.

  11. Brian & Mike do a good job, but yes, I do to, Andrea. Hope he’s having a good vacation.
    Beautiful morning here, and rain a little later, but that’s ok.

  12. Looked pretty windy at the Buffalo Airport as the POTUS arrived this morning. 11 AM winds were sustained at 20 MPH at KBUF. Southwest breeze up lake Erie is at work, as usual.

  13. Anyone have problems with the new WIVB website? It loads terribly slow compared to the old one. It’s slow even on my brand new laptop.

    Very humid today. Breezy but nothing extraordinary that would’ve affected the President’s flight into Buffalo today.

  14. I hope so too, Kim. Something is seriously wrong with the new website layout.

    The skies are getting darker to my north. Looks like the front might be working its way in from the NW?

  15. Some impressive looking cumulus clouds up north. I’ve heard a couple of rumbles of distant thunder. Probably won’t make it to Alden though.

  16. Quite a little colorful mess heading due E. which will bring it into my backyard in a few hours. Has the POT US left yet? Hope he has as there’s quite a bit to do back at the office.

  17. Had a brief downpour here in northern Amherst, but the brunt of the storm skirted by to my north and looks to be headed east toward Akron. I’ve noticed as these storms flare up they lose intensity as they head east and south.

  18. Dark clouds and a few rumbles of thunder as the President had lunch on Park Avenue in the city of Rochester this afternoon, but it didn’t amount to much more than a few sprinkles.

  19. Just back for 1 night on a 2 legged vaca to 2 different places. Won’t be on air until the day after Labor Day.

    Sled Hill and others; NOAA and the NWS have the most open weather data of any nation on earth. Period. Our government does not charge for any products, as do the Canadians, the ECWMF, and other First World nations. It is accessible to anyone who has a computer and the internet, whether or not one has a clue or not…with the exceptions of a few experimental programs still in testing phase.

    As for CPC, I’ll say it one more time. The CPC isn’t the primary branch of NOAA which deals with climate, despite its imposing name. It is an operational forecasting branch which does not operate in the time scales required in true climate science. Good or bad verification scores for some outlooks aside, I can tell you as a professional there is absolutely no basis, no evidence, nothing to support earlier implications made by one of my favorite bloggers. Nada. No one is pressured to doctor the forecasts…that would be entirely counterproductive to the mission, staffing and funding of CPC. There is another branch, the Climate Program Office (with which you are not familiar and whose work even I don’t look at on a regular basis) which deals much more with actual climate in the appropriate time frame. CPO and NCDC are the branches more involved. I know more about NCDC, and their work is subject to constant scrutiny and peer review.

    Talk to you folks soon,

    Don

  20. Starting to hear faint rumbles of thunder from the north. Quite a bit of rain showing up on radar moving in from the NW. Wondering if it will hold together long enough to impact our area.

  21. Quite a healthy looking line of convection heading east across southern Ontario as of this post. If it’s elevated convection, it might have a shot of holding together into WNY. I’ve noticed some lawns just beginning to show signs of browning slightly (for the first time all summer), so even a few tenths of an inch of rain might help stop that process. It would be nice to go the entire summer into early fall without a single stretch where things “crisp up” due to dryness.

  22. Really getting dark here “ATM” (clever,is that original?) and I would like it to rain. Having some wind at a muggy 78degrees, with realizing we’re not in the same country as you NYS northerners.

  23. Just wanted to pop in and say congrats to you guys at Channel 4 for getting Todd Santos. He is an awesome addition to the 4WarnWeather Team and another reason to only watch channel 4. I hope he is here for a long time to come and hope he even joins the blog.

  24. The CPC’s 8 to 14 day outlook, linked below, along with the GFS and Euro, all agree on a return to cooler, troughiness across the Great Lakes during next week and maybe beyond. With September just a few days away (we’re now losing over 15 minutes of daylight per WEEK), once this spell of heat and humidity breaks, it might be difficult to see a similar episode again this year:

    http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/

  25. Thanks for the link Dave. I read the prognostic discussion and the confidence is rather low on the 8-14 outlook. Just a 2 out of 5. It’s not exactly in stone yet but I’m no fan of the sauna weather we have now. It’ll be a relief when it’s over.

    Had 1.25″ of rain last night on the northern edge of Amherst. The mosquitos have been just awful the past few days! It makes the outdoors unbearable in the evening, combined with the humidity.

  26. WPC shows a decent dose of rain over the next several days…most of it coming in advance of that cool front. Timing isn’t great for the holiday weekend, but I think many will welcome, at least, the refreshing air / lower humidity that follows. Hard to believe that in just about 4 weeks we’ll be starting to see the first real fall foliage developing, leading up to its typical peak later in October. Certainly doesn’t feel that way with the pattern we’re currently in.

  27. Very dead blog over the last couple weeks while Don’s been away. I guess no one likes posting if they don’t think Don will read it or respond to it.

  28. If that’s the case it’ll probably pick up by Tuesday because Don is back. When Don retires (which will be well deserved) this blog will end up retiring with him. Not a lot of terribly exciting weather anyway, unless you were in one of the southern tier counties in WNY today. A lot of rain this Summer so I guess it was appropriate to end with some rain, now that meteorological Fall as begun.

  29. We were down in the DC area last week, visiting family. Happened to catch Amelia Seigel’s weather segment on Sat. night. If I hadn’t recognized her voice and the graphic, I don’t think I would have known her. Her on-air is far more polished than when she was here. It was good to see her doing so well.

  30. A pleasant, partly sunny, 73degrees here in Friendship. Quite a strong lightening storm around 9pm last night w/not too much rain. Cloudy skies persist today w/high humidity.
    Much snow is predicted for Winter. (Sled, get ready for that luge!)
    Happy for Amelia. She’s adorable.

  31. I heard the Olean/Friendship area were hit hard yesterday with quite a bit of rain. What is your basis for the snow prediction, lois? Farmer’s Almanac?

  32. “Much snow” is not predicted by anyone with an ounce of scientific credibility, Lois. We simply have no clue at this point…unless, gawd forbid, you’re relying on the Farmers Almanac gibberish.

  33. My recall capabilities are not good (take pity) but will admit it must have been the Farmer’s Almanac. Sorry, but you’ve been away a long time. Hope you had a wonderful vacation.
    E and S of us are having extreme weather, but this immediate has escaped it all.
    Cooler and dryer air is upon us,however. Feels good.

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