Hints–Only HINTS–of Some Change in the Pattern later in October

There are some signs in the Canadian and GFS ensemble means of some increased troughing from the northern plains into the Grt Lakes sometime around the 18th-22nd. The ECMWF shows very little of that tendency but does not refute it either—it just has a very weak tendency in that direction. Possibly tied into this are hints of a more negative AO and NAO toward that time, and more of a positive PNA. However, those 3 indices have lots of spread between their ensemble members, so they’re anything but “high confidence.” As for the MJO, it is forecast to remain active for the next 2 weeks, but with more uncertainty than in recent weeks both on its strength and how much more it will propagate to the east. There are some fuzzy signs of possible weakening.

So, to avoid cherrypicking, I feel it’s appropriate to write about hints, rather than imply there are clearcut trends. There aren’t, at least not yet. On the last thread, it was brought up that Joe Bastardi spoke/wrote of the greater significance of early October positive snow anomalies in October compared to the rest of the month. Having read at least 2 technical papers by Judah Cohen, I know of no such suggestion on Cohen’s part. I could be wrong. But I doubt Bastardi is right, particularly in light of his history of cherrypicking and sensationalizing in the past.

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77 thoughts on “Hints–Only HINTS–of Some Change in the Pattern later in October

  1. Still looking chillier for next Fri-Sunday, approximately. In the longer term, the Euro ensemble mean is somewhat deeper with the broad trough which follows than the Canadian, which is atypical. The Canadian tends to overdo such troughs more frequently. The GFS mean is somewhat a closer match with the Euro. The Euro’s big storm for a week from Sunday in yesterday’s 12z operational run is nowhere to be found today, and is somewhat closer to the GFS operational run…though the latter still appears to be overdoing the cold advection to some extent next weekend.

  2. The 12z Euro operational run is now almost as chilly next wknd as the GFS. By the way–and this is subjective, since I’m not doing verification scores–the seemingly almost automatic superiority of the Euro over the GFS is in a shrinkage mode. The upgraded GFS will be receiving more important upgrades late in the year as the the new supercomputers will be incorporating more sophisticated physics “packages.”

  3. Wow. Weather blog has been awfully quiet for the past 3 or 4 days. I’ve heard rumblings and rumors of shall I say it? Snow…for next week. I noticed this little snippet.. https://twitter.com/MarkVogan/status/389391720506327041/photo/1
    Can’t vouch for its legitimacy, nor am I familiar with Mark Vogan. Some less snowy prognostications are saying that while we likely wont see snowfall, there’s a chance for rain/snow mix in the higher elevations during the overnights next week. I will say, I’ve seen or heard nothing of the sort from the NWS or our fine forecasters at WIVB.

  4. In looking at the temperatures for the next 7 days I’m not concerned about any snow falling in our area. As for the hilly terrain, it may be possible, not sure. Just a few pages back Don commented on the unreliability of the GFS that far out.

  5. Never heard of Vogan. Just early in my work day…I’ll let you know if his idea is as silly as it sounds…or not so silly. In any case, there’s no new thread until tonight. I have some catching up to do…was off yesterday, TS.

    Just looked at Vogan’s site, which is very handsome. In his profile, he describes himself as “expert weather forecaster” and a senior partner. No listing of credentials. Suspicious, to say the least.

  6. 850 temps in operational Euro and GFS don’t support snow or a mix into next week, with the exception of a short period of -4 toward next Thursday in the 00z Euro–which could bring a few flakes to high elevations, all other things being equal.

    In any case, the pattern shift is not an extreme one, but it IS more rigorous and longer lasting than it had been appearing to be in last week’s ensemble means. That’s due to embedded short waves digging more vigorously as we draw nearer to the time period which cannot be seen in ensemble means that far in advance. The means this morning tend to flatten the flow to some extent late in their respective runs. There will be ups and downs, but a more favorable wrn ridge/ern trough will be setting up in the mean for a lengthier period before that flattening occurs.

  7. So are the temps going to stay normal to below normal instead of up and down temps. I don’t mind the warm temps but the chilly and warm temps are getting old. But hey that’s Buffalo for ya. lol

    -And I quote from my last sentence: ” There will be ups and downs, but a more favorable wrn ridge/ern trough will be setting up in the mean for a lengthier period before that flattening occurs.”
    There is NOTHING unique to Buffalo when it comes to ups and downs. -DP

  8. Ok. You know the “don’t shoot the messenger” cliche? Well i’m pasting an excerpt from the NWS Buf text at 3:40 today:

    WHILE IT IS WAY TO EARLY TO PUT MUCH CONFIDENCE INTO THE DETAILS OF
    ANY OF THE GUIDANCE PACKAGES…THERE IS CONSENSUS AMONG THE
    ENSEMBLES THAT THE GENERAL LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE TUESDAY
    NIGHT/WEDNESDAY TO SUPPORT SOME MEASUREABLE LAKE EFFECT SNOW FOR
    SELECT SITES WITHIN A WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW. IT WOULD NOT TAKE
    MUCH TO THROW A WRENCH INTO THIS EARLY SEASON SCENARIO THOUGH…SO
    WILL LEAVE IT FOR NOW AS AN INTERESTING CONVERSATION PIECE.

    Like they said a conversation piece, at best, but certain to strike one up nonetheless.

  9. Ha! Beat me too it TS. At least it’s SOMETHING interesting to keep an eye on. These past few weeks of great, but benign weather is becoming a snore to weather enthusiasts.

  10. Not seeing evidence of any S- potential by Tuesday. Maybe some elevation-driven snow or mixed precip by Wed…more likely Wed night/Thur. Operational Euro & GFS bring the 850 temp to -6. IF that verified, that could even bring some flakes to lower elevations. IF. It’s only Tuesday, and that’s in the less reliable portion of both global models.

  11. Late next week is actually the average date for the first flurries at BUF and ROC, so it would be right on schedule for a change…(IF) it happens.

    Being at an elevation of under 500 feet, and very close to Lake Ontario & Irondequoit Bay northeast of ROC, my residence tends to be located in one of the last areas to see the rain change over to snow this time of year. That flow will be worth watching though. If it does veer solidly out of the NW with favorable conditions, it almost always means some lake effect for my ‘upper right’ corner of Monroe Co. And, of course, it could get interesting on the western southerntier. We shall see.

  12. I gave up putting snow tires on my truck any time before January. Snow tire tread wears a lot faster than regular all-season radials because they use a softer rubber compound. They have to be replaced every 10k-12k miles so it’s best to limit their use as much as you can. It’s good to be prepared but putting snow tires on, getting shovels out, and putting mowers away (which is insane because lawns all around me are still growing wildly thanks to the mild weather this Fall) ain’t gonna bring Winter here any sooner.

  13. Willie, tongue in cheek of course. Although I did just go to the store to stock up on batteries, food and ice melting compound. Just in case. Lol.

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