More Ups Than Downs for a While in the Temperature Department

As I type this post, a Freeze Warning will be in effect late tonight for much of WNY. But the overall trending favors a gradual transition to above average temperatures occurring more often than not over the next few weeks. The western ridge will be “beaten down” by Pacific troughs/storm systems, allowing a mainly zonal flow to dominate by the end of the 1st week of November and into the 2nd. This continues to be a fairly high confidence extended forecast…more on that in a moment.

Within this milder than average mean trend, there will–of course–be ups and downs. Short waves will still buckle the flow, starting with a strong storm system late this week (that will produce winds approaching Advisory criteria by Friday). In its wake will be progressively chillier weather over the weekend, though nothing extreme. Some lake effect may develop in a WNW flow on Saturday, as rain showers. Some moderation will return by Monday, with signs of another short wave toward midweek, next week. Beyond that, short waves cannot be seen in the ensembles.

As for the zonal flow, the PNA ensemble has that index going negative/warm; the AO positive/warm; and the NAO positive/warm. None of this can be tied to the MJO which is weak, expected to remain weak for the next 2 weeks, and which is not propagating to the east.

But for snow/winter fans, I call your attention to the 3 words in my headline: “for a While”. This is not necessarily a sign of how trends are going to go later in the cold weather season…due to the usual variables which are not predictable beyond a couple of weeks.

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287 thoughts on “More Ups Than Downs for a While in the Temperature Department

  1. That’s ironic. I’ve been hearing the exact opposite. Warm and calm is what I just read somewhere about the latter half of November. If the GFS is predicting storms that far out, wow, what an upgrade.

  2. Will certain places that have received a coating and will encounter clearing skies later get colder than expected (because of the light snow cover?)

  3. 2.5 inches in Town of Hamburg. Just flurries now, but just took a drive to Mighty Taco and the roads are absolutely horrible. The lights are out on a large portion of South Park near the Town Hall. Definitely more than I had expected. Nice little event to get the Winter season off and running.

  4. Jon,

    There are no such rumors from credible sources. And from what I read on that site you posted a link to, that’s not a credible source…IMO. And the answer to your question is no.

    The NWS employee in OP measured 2.0″ as of 9:18pm at his location. For those not familiar with the Town &/or the Village of OP, there is considerable terrain variation in elevation.

    .7″ at NWS as of 9:55, which is about all they’re getting from the synoptic snow.

  5. I think that’s correct Adam. That’s why nrn Erie and Niagara have the black ice advisory. 31F by my thermometer. Lawns are still coated but I can see some sections of my driveway and sidewalks with a thin layer of ice on them.

  6. Definitley a huge difference even over just a couple hundred feet. Just a few miles to my north and a couple hundred feet lower at the WS/OP border there is only about 2 inches. Come up to the village (875 feet) theres about 3-4″ , go up toward chestnut ridge (1200 ft) and theres 4-5″

  7. The blogger claims to be a chief meteorologist by the name of Andrew. He hasn’t listed any qualifications though, so it likely isn’t credible.

  8. There are signs of somewhat colder weather Thanksgiving week, with some ensemble means putting the axis of a trough near the Grt Lks, and another keeping it further west over the north central states. It’s not showing as anything extreme at this point (still no real western ridge), and it’s impossible for the “US” being cold and snowy…so whatever the source, you didn’t hear it right.

  9. Bastardi also thinks that we’ll see major blocking in December due to a negative AO, negative NAO and a positive PNA. He’s definitely going too far out.

  10. Then may I suggest you quit posting such unfounded stuff? Nick…I honestly don’t know why Bastardi and AccuWx parted ways, and no one I spoke to at my AMS conference did either. Mysterious, but unknown.

  11. Are the ensembles suggesting that the trough around Thanksgiving will stay put rather than progress as in the pattern we are seeing now?

  12. 3.3 inches total from last nights little event in the Town of Hamburg. Definitely worth of an advisory from how bad the roads were last night.

  13. Here’s a forecast – heating bills are forecasted to rise some 13-15% this season. Be careful what you wish for from Nature.

    Don, you mentioned some breezy days this week a few minutes ago during your forecast. Does this weekend look breezy or not so bad?

  14. Actually, I went past breezy to Quite Windy by late tom’w…still windy on Thursday. Saturday looks nice, with above average temps returning. Sunday will have a warm breeze, but some showers will likely move in as well.

    More on a new thread later this evening.

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