Temperatures will be heading back to near normal, then well above normal as we get into the weekend and next Monday. The initial warming will be tempered by gusty winds, adding a wind chill to the air. These winds will relax on Friday, and Saturday a more southerly flow will boost readings into the 50s. We’ll be even warmer on Sunday, with a gusty SSW wind. However, a deepening area of low pressure to our west will inject moisture into our region. The storm system will bring a strong, moist southerly flow to WNY on Monday. Both the ECMWF and GFS deterministic/operational models are in good agreement now this storm system will be deep as it passes to our north. It will bring more widespread showers into our region on a warm & windy Monday, and I’m seeing signs we may also experience some Sct Tshowers or even TStorms as a strong cold front approaches Monday night.
With this new agreement between the models, it now appears temperatures will drop rather sharply by Tuesday into Wednesday, ahead of some moderation later next week. Post frontal winds may be an issue, possibly reach Advisory criteria (or even stronger–too early to tell).
The ensemble means suggest some weak troughing either over the north central states or the Great Lakes right around Thanksgiving. As per usual, at that time range short waves and their respective amplitudes can’t be seen. The mean may end up being the smoothed mean of a higher amplitude flow. The Canadian mean has that hinted-at troughing moving back toward N & S Dakota, while the ECMWF has the trough axis at the Great Lakes. If the timing doesn’t change (and the odds on it not changing are fairly slim), Thanksgiving Day would be more likely to be cool than warm.