After Our Taste of Winter, Warming Enters, then a Thermal Roller Coaster

Temperatures will be heading back to near normal, then well above normal as we get into the weekend and next Monday. The initial warming will be tempered by gusty winds, adding a wind chill to the air. These winds will relax on Friday, and Saturday a more southerly flow will boost readings into the 50s. We’ll be even warmer on Sunday, with a gusty SSW wind. However, a deepening area of low pressure to our west will inject moisture into our region. The storm system will bring a strong, moist southerly flow to WNY on Monday. Both the ECMWF and GFS deterministic/operational models are in good agreement now this storm system will be deep as it passes to our north. It will bring more widespread showers into our region on a warm & windy Monday, and I’m seeing signs we may also experience some Sct Tshowers or even TStorms as a strong cold front approaches Monday night.

With this new agreement between the models, it now appears temperatures will drop rather sharply by Tuesday into Wednesday, ahead of some moderation later next week. Post frontal winds may be an issue, possibly reach Advisory criteria (or even stronger–too early to tell).

The ensemble means suggest some weak troughing either over the north central states or the Great Lakes right around Thanksgiving. As per usual, at that time range short waves and their respective amplitudes can’t be seen. The mean may end up being the smoothed mean of a higher amplitude flow. The Canadian mean has that hinted-at troughing moving back toward N & S Dakota, while the ECMWF has the trough axis at the Great Lakes. If the timing doesn’t change (and the odds on it not changing are fairly slim), Thanksgiving Day would be more likely to be cool than warm.

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186 thoughts on “After Our Taste of Winter, Warming Enters, then a Thermal Roller Coaster

  1. Winds were roaring in Hamburg last night but I’d have to agree with Lisa that this was not quite the last high wind event in terms of duration. Gusts seemed just as strong though. I had a spruce tree come down during the last event that was on my property for 30+ years. It was a shame that I lost it.

    Devin, please edit your video if you can. That language is not appropriate. You have to consider that younger ones may be reading the content here. The video seemed intense but I honestly couldn’t see much other than hearing your commentary.

  2. I agree that the winds overnight were not as impressive as the last event. But it seemed like 100 mph winds when the front blew through for a few minutes there. (I’m sure it wasn’t 100mph) But for a few minutes, I was standing in my garage echoing Devins sentiments in his video. I couldnt help but think, I wouldn’t want to experience a tornado up close like I might have in the past. Last night reinstilled my respect for mother nature, that’s for sure.

  3. The velocity data on the WSR 88-D as the front moved in looked ferocious, but not all of the winds off the ground mixed down, apparently. This definitely was weaker (the front) than I’d expected. The post frontal winds were about what I expected. As far as damage, one mitigating factor–as an NWSer told the Buffalo News–was the previous loss of most weakened trees, along with muddier soil during the last High Wind event.

    Devin, I’m going to watch your clip now. If the language is profane, it goes. That will not be permitted on this blog.

  4. Possible but, so far, no evidence of that. If it were a squall line with vortices/gustnadoes, that would have been more likely. But that characteristic petered out over Ohio.

  5. The 00z ECMWF trys to bring a low to New England and slowly deepen it, which would afford us some snow or rain changing to snow, and its ensemble mean is not in total disagreement with that (as is often the case). However, neither the GFS nor the Canadian are in agreement with that. The one point of agreement points to a Pretty Darn Cold & Windy Sunday, with a WNW flow favoring lake snows in the usual places.

    In the longer term, there is good agreement currently, as there was late last week, of something close to seasonably or slightly milder than seasonable temps for us on Thanksgiving Day. There is also a tendency in all models and ensemble means toward colder weather returning around Dec 2-3. However, because that occurs at the end of the model runs, I can’t determine if that is a trend of a stable pattern change, or just another progressive cold shot.

  6. As is usually the case, those funneling winds up lake Erie had no problem surging right into the ROC metro. KROC recorded a gust to 63 early this AM. Doesn’t appear to be nearly as many wind-related issues as the last event, though.

    Don – Are you seeing any clearer indications from the indices (PNA/NAO/AO), to make you think they’re hinting at a real pattern change sometime soon, or are the signals & spread among members still far too weak at this point?

  7. Don are you familiar with joe Lundberg? If so how’s his credibility? He is saying the models for the weekend specifically Friday Friday night parts of the great lakes, upstate New York and New England could be in line for the first general snowfall. Any suggestions you’ve seen to this? I do know it looks to be mighty chilly by next weekend. Thanks for your input.

  8. Only one model, which I already posted about earlier today, the 00z European, would produce a potential general snowfall. However, it does appear WPC in their morning forecasts is leaning toward that solution.

  9. Thanks Don. Its hard to decipher who is credible like yourself, Eliot Abrams, Z and Yukon. Guys Like Margusity and our good friend Joe Bastardi make it difficult sometime to decipher the true meteorologists just forecasting to the dream chasers.

  10. Winds were awful overnight in Alden. Lost a few hours of sleep. Had to run out in the thick of it as the wind had managed to blow both my shed doors open. I had cinder blocks in front of those doors, didn’t help. No property damage this time. I had property damage during the last high wind storm.

    Don, you have problem noticed this, but if that’s not a name change from Jon, I don’t know what is. The 1-liners and terse references to models. You can delete this paragraph if you’d like, or my entire post, up to you, but I find the posts strikingly similar.

  11. That rapidly deepened low pressure is producing one heck of a blizzard in Canada, on the western shore of Hudson Bay in Quebec. Environment Canada reports sustained winds of 63 MPH, gusting to 77 MPH (124 KM/H), with Heavy snow and 0 mi. visibility at Umiujaq, Quebec. Needless to say, Blizzard Warnings are up for that region.

  12. Don, will most or all of any LES we get tonight be steered down to below the BUF STWNS (OP) with a Westerly wind….Just curious. Thanks !

  13. Don cpc seems pretty confident in the 6 to 10 and almost equally confident in the 8 to 14 for almost 2/3rds of the nation having negative anomilies for below average temps. How are you feeling?

  14. Don how are you also feeling about the storm showing up on the Euro and GEM models next Wednesday or is it too early to tell? Track so far looks very similar to the storm on December 26, 2012.

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